I have noticed that the ‘hype cycle’, in which expectations rise quickly, only to crash just as quickly, can be seen in many things, from intimate relationships to startups to new lines of business at existing companies.
What is the Hype Cycle?
Gartner popularized the ‘hype cycle’ for new technologies, which is the idea that when a new technology comes out, hype around it builds as people see the possible benefits it might bring. Hype builds to a crescendo, reaching the point where the expectations are unrealistic. At this point, expectations come crashing down, leading to the ‘trough of disillusionment’ where unhappiness with the technology is widespread. Over time, those with more realistic expectations put the value of the technology to use, entering the ‘plateau of productivity’.
A good example of this would be the Internet. Back in the late 1990’s it was obvious that the Internet was going to shepherd in large new changes to society. Internet stocks quickly gained huge valuations; Cisco Systems, the major maker of internet networking equipment at the time, had predictions that it’s valuation would reach a then unheard of $1 trillion dollars. Internet stocks went to crazy heights and the hype was rampant. We all know the story of the Dot-Com bust when people realized the reality would not match the hype and stocks were pummeled while the economy was thrown into disarray. We also all know how widely used the internet is today. It went from inflated expectations to disillusionment and now to ubiquitous usage.
The Hype Cycle for New Businesses
I noticed a close similarity yesterday while listening to Alex Hormozi, author and entrepreneur, talking about the phases a startup goes through. He outlines six stages of change that people go through when starting a new business, which seemed strikingly like the hype cycle. The stages are: 1) Uninformed Optimism, where initial excitement drives action without awareness of challenges; 2) Informed Pessimism, where difficulties become apparent, leading to doubt; 3) Crisis of Meaning, where the purpose of the venture is questioned; 4) Crash & Burn, where most people give up; 5) Informed Optimism, where those who persevere find solutions and prepare for challenges; and 6) Achievement, where persistence leads to success.
One major difference is that technologies, unlike relationships or companies, stick around once they are created. In contrast, continuing a relationship or company through the disillusionment stage takes uncommon persistence. That’s one reason why so few people make great entrepreneurs. When things look bleak, it’s easier to chase another dream that hasn’t lost its luster.
The Hype Cycle for Relationships
We’ve all seen the same thing in intimate relationships, and many of us have experienced it ourselves. The relationship starts with hopeful intentions. If it makes it past the first few hurdles it rapidly becomes all consuming, with people often thinking they’ve finally found ‘the one’. For a few lucky people this stage never ends. For most of us, the idealization starts to turn sour as you notice that your partner is less than perfect, or at least less than the perfect one for you. This is the point when many relationships disintegrate. Those that survive must be built on a more realistic and less idealistic vision of what being together means.
The concept of ‘The Emotional Cycle of Change’ has an eerily similar shape, according to the literature.
As you can see, a common factor is that in the valley of despair, people often, probably much more often than not, quit and start another relationship, again with high hopes. The cycle repeats and repeats until both partners decide to push through.
In my experience, relationships are more like the Gartner Hype Cycle; they start with a moderate level of intensity and grow, often rapidly. In that phase the optimism also grows. In contrast, most graphs about the emotional cycle of change show optimism starting at a high point. Of course, there are both men and women who start imagining their weddings after a first date, but my observation is that optimism grows as you start to get to know the other person.
The Emotional Response Increases as Expectations Heighten
One of the reasons it’s so easy to give up when disillusionment sets in is that as expectations have inflated so has the emotional response. As one plunges into the trough of disillusionment, and you start to realize that what you wanted will never come to pass, emotions remain high. This adds fuel to the fire and, as the gap between what you hoped for and what you now see becomes ever larger, it is often easier emotionally to walk away than to stay and try to fix the situation.
What Can Be Done?
The important thing is to notice this cycle. Understand that a period of disillusionment is natural and often if you just show fortitude and persistence you can work through it. Of course, there are cases such as abusive relationships or hopeless businesses where it’s better to get out and move on, but in many cases, understanding that disillusionment is normal and sticking with your goals will ultimately see you through. Quitting and starting over, on the other hand, will more often than not lead you right back to the same place.
Non Sequitur
For those worried about AI taking over the world, I would like to reassure you that if that happens, it is a good way off. AI, while an incredibly useful tool, has so many weaknesses that it won’t replace humans anytime soon.
For instance, I asked it to combine the two graphs above to show how emotions peak with expectations. It produced the nonsensical graph below, complete with such crazy labels as Uninformed Eppecmsism and the Peal of Ifplored Expectations. As happens all too often with the current state of AI, at first glance things look impressive, but the inflated expectations are soon replaced by disillusionment.
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